In 1988, Warren Buffett bought Coca-Cola stock. He didn't build a discounted cash flow model with 47 assumptions. He didn't hire a team of quants. He looked at the earnings, the growth rate, the price, and the brand — and he did the math on a napkin. He bought $1 billion worth. Today that position is worth over $25 billion.
This isn't an argument against sophistication. It's an argument against complexity masquerading as intelligence.
The Tyranny of Overthinking
Modern investing has developed an obsession with complexity. Factor models with 11 variables. Optimization algorithms that rebalance daily. Risk parity strategies that sound brilliant in a whitepaper and blow up in a real crisis. The 2008 financial collapse wasn't caused by people who didn't have enough data — it was caused by people who had too much data and too little judgment.
The best investors we've ever known — and we've spent decades alongside some exceptional ones — share a common trait: they can explain their thesis in one sentence. If you can't explain why you own something to your spouse over dinner, you probably shouldn't own it.
"If you need a spreadsheet to understand the investment, you don't understand the investment."
The Three Questions on the Napkin
Every great investment decision comes down to three questions you can answer in ink on a cocktail napkin:
What is this thing worth?
Not what someone will pay for it tomorrow — what are the actual cash flows? What would a rational private buyer pay for the whole business?
What am I paying for it?
Price and value are different things. A great company at a terrible price is a bad investment. A mediocre company at a fire-sale price is often a great one.
What could go wrong?
Not what's most likely — what's the worst case? And if the worst case happens, can I survive it? The best investors don't just calculate expected returns. They calculate expected regret.
Why This Matters in 2026
We live in an era where every brokerage app gives you access to options chains, leveraged ETFs, crypto derivatives, and "AI-powered" stock screeners. The average retail investor has more tools than a Goldman Sachs trader had in 1995. And yet, average retail returns haven't improved. In many cases, they've gotten worse — because the tools enable overtrading, which enables emotional decision-making, which enables wealth destruction.
At Broadway Advisor Group, we believe in old-school conviction backed by modern execution. We use technology for what it's good at — tax optimization, risk analysis, data aggregation — and we use human judgment for what it's irreplaceable at — understanding your life, your goals, your fears, and your timeline.
Sometimes the best financial plan fits on a napkin. And sometimes the napkin is all you need.
The views expressed are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice. Broadway Advisor Group is a registered investment adviser.